Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin’s next big move could come from Tokyo, not Wall Street.
The upcoming Japan Bank meeting will take place from June 16 to 17, which may inspire global stock markets and cryptocurrency trading. Bitcoin traders are especially on the edge. BITMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned that BoJ’s transformation could make risky assets higher.
BOJ meeting from June 16 to 17
According to Hayes, if Boj insists on reducing his bond purchases and instead brings back some quantitative easing, the market will be a big push. At present, banks are doing so-called quantitative tightening. On July 31, 2024, it cut government bonds by ¥400 billion per quarter. This began in August 2024. The shed plans to check how it works at this month’s meeting.
Changes in bond buying plans
According to reports from unnamed sources, some BOJ officials hope to slow down the cuts further. They are talking about reducing the purchase volume of bonds purchased by 200 billion yen per quarter starting in April 2027. This means that money will be reduced from leaving the market. If economic data weakens at home, they are prepared to be more cautious, which is a sign.
I don’t think the average Japanese Prebus would agree. If BOJ delays QT and restarts QE in the June meeting risk asset, it will fly.
LFG $ btc pic.twitter.com/et08m6twes
— Arthur Hayes (@cryptohayes) June 10, 2025
Bitcoin’s reaction to rising production
Bitcoin hit a high price of $112,000 on May 22. This is two days after Japan’s 30-year bond yield rose to 3.185% on May 20, 2025. Traders believe that long-term yields are a warning sign about Japan’s debt burden. Then, some big investors see Bitcoin as a place to get rid of the risk of government default.
As of today, the market cap of cryptocurrencies stood at $3.38 trillion. Chart: TradingView
Future risks and hopes
André Dragosch of Bitwise Europe said that if yields keep rising, Bitcoin will move towards $200,000. He pointed out that there is no central authority that Bitcoin has the potential to fail. But other risks are imminent. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and other large players are all on different paths. Any shed move will run through the global money market and may face a regression from regulators.
What will happen next
Market observers will focus on the wording in the BoJ statement. They will pay attention to phrases such as “flexible approach” or implying that banks can act again when needed. They will also look for any shift in the shed that will make the long-term yield move. If the bank gives itself more space on the earnings curve, it can be considered a smaller form of relief.
For traders in Tokyo, New York and beyond, the language will be important. A tendency to surprise can be alleviated, which may tend toward global markets. For at least some time, this could make Bitcoin and other risky assets fly. However, if the shed only relaxes its tightening speed, the lift may be moderate. Either way, everyone’s eyes are on June 16-17.
Featured images from Twenty20, charts for TradingView
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