Bitcoin CEX inflows below 1-year average – Will the bulls lose steam or will it increase?

Despite the increased volatility caused by the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin still shows resilience. Geopolitical tensions have led to a sharp shift in the global market as a whole, but BTC has a stable rate of more than $105,000. This price action shows that the market is in a waiting phase – investors are cautious, but not actively selling, and may wait for more clarity before committing to the next major action.

Top analyst Axel Adler shares important liquidity data that helps explain current market sentiment. In December 2024, when BTC traded between $980 million and $100,000, the average daily daily inflow to centralized exchanges (CEXS) reached a record $131 billion. The influx of stablecoins indicates buying pressure and bullish momentum at the time.

However, by June 2025, daily inflows had dropped significantly to $70 billion, below the 365-day average and below the December peak of $61 billion. This decline indicates a natural slowdown in exchange-oriented liquidity, which often promotes price gatherings. However, as Bitcoin still holds more than $105,000, market participants still seem to remain confident and the current stage may reflect the merger before the next breakout.

Bitcoin consolidates in case of uncertainty and slow liquidity flow

Bitcoin entered the merger phase after a massive rally, thus increasing the price from $74,000 to an all-time high of nearly $112,000. This pullback comes in a complex macroeconomic environment that rises with yields from the U.S. treasury, fear of inflation and escalating geopolitical tensions, especially the evolving conflict between Israel and Iran. These overlapping risks have had a serious impact on investor sentiment, making it a key to identifying Bitcoin’s next major move in the coming weeks.

Despite the volatility, many analysts remain optimistic, expecting Bitcoin to recoup its previous highs and enter price discovery. Market participants continue to monitor chains and liquidity indicators to measure emotions and beliefs.

A key insight from Axel Adler came from December 2024, when BTC traded at $98,000 for $100,000, putting USDT and USDC into centralized exchanges every day to $131 billion. As of June 2025, these traffic had dropped to $70 billion a day, below the 365-day average of $5 billion, compared with the price at $61 billion at December highs.

A significant decline in liquidity reflects the cooling of speculative momentum. However, BTC holdings over $100,000 suggest that long-term holders remain committed and no extensive sales occur. This suggests that the market may be going through a healthy period of infrastructure before breaking through.

Price action remains stable within a key range

The 12-hour Bitcoin chart shows that BTC is trading at $106,881, which has served as the base of the main $103,600 support level since late May. Despite recent volatility caused by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin remains in the integrated area between $103,600 and $109,300, respecting the lower and upper limits of that range.

Price is currently launching a 100-day SMA (Green Line), which shows that buyers are stepping in at a dynamic support level. The bullish crossover of the 50-day and 100-day SMA further supports the short-term upward momentum. However, BTC is still trading below the $109,300 resistor, which continues to act as a strong supply zone. A decisive breakthrough above this level can confirm the continuation of the trend and lay the foundation for another test that has been rising all the time, at $112K.

The volume is still relatively stable, but lacks the intensity in previous impulsive movements. If Bitcoin can build momentum and buy strongly at $107K above $107K, it could pave the way for a breakout. On the downside, the loss of $103,600 will invalidate the current structure and may result in further repurchasing of 200-day SMA, which is currently close to $94,000. Currently, this structure is beneficial to the patient bull.

Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView

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