JPMorgan analysts report that Bitcoin could gain a foundation at the cost of gold in the second half of the year due to rising company demand and support from U.S. states.
According to analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, “depreciating trade” (investors all turn to gold and Bitcoin to prevent weakening of fiat currencies, this becomes a zero-sum competition, and Bitcoin has now gained bitcoin higher and higher.
“Between mid-February and mid-April, gold was at the expense of Bitcoin, and we have been watching the opposite over the past three weeks, that is, Bitcoin was at the expense of gold,” said JPMorgan analysts. “In general, we expect the YTD zero-sum game between gold and Bitcoin to expand to the rest of the year, but tend to be crypto-specific catalysts, creating more bitcoins for Bitcoin in the second half of the year.”
Gold has fallen nearly 8% since April 22, while Bitcoin has soared 18%. Investor flows reflect this shift, with capital moving out of gold ETFs and entering Bitcoin. Futures data reflect the same trend, with lower amounts and increased bitcoin position.
JPMorgan attributes Bitcoin’s momentum to weakening gold and is a crypto-specific catalyst. Companies such as Strategy and Metaplanet are increasing their Bitcoin holdings, with Strategy planning to raise $84 billion in Bitcoin purchases by 2027 and already hit 32% of that target.
Yesterday, Metaplanet reported its strongest quarter to date in Q1. Metaplanet’s Bitcoin holdings increased to 6,796 BTC, up 3.9 times in 2025 alone, and over 5,000 BTC in 2025 alone. Although temporary estimated losses from the decline in Bitcoin price in March were temporary, the company had unrealized earnings of 13.5 billion yen as of May 12. Metaplanet’s BTC net asset value has soared by 103.X times due to the adoption of Bitcoin treasury standards, and its market cap has increased by 138.1x.
Several U.S. states are also warming up Bitcoin. Now, New Hampshire allows its 5% reserve in Bitcoin. Arizona is launching Bitcoin reserves and promises not to raise taxes this year.
“As the list grows, as other U.S. states may consider adding bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this may be a more persistent positive catalyst for bitcoin,” analysts wrote.
