Bitcoin STH MVRV trend higher: Short-term holders’ eyes $118K – $128K range

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Bitcoin STH MVRV trend higher: Short-term holders’ eyes 8K – 8K range

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After several days of merger, Bitcoin transactions exceeded $100,000, and less than $105,000. The market remains uncertain as the bulls try to improve their status, while the bears expect potential backtracking. Debate is intensifying: Some analysts believe that it is only a matter of time before a large scale expansion, while others show that healthy corrections can be made before the next leg.

New data from CryptoQuant adds depth to the current image. The company said that the market value of short-term holders (STH MVRV) is currently 1.09. This suggests that short-term holders are at moderate profits, but have not yet reached a level that usually triggers large sales. However, historical patterns show that the first significant wave of profits usually starts with an MVRV of 1.25, which is in line with the price of Bitcoin at about $118,000. Powerful waves often occur around 1.35, around the $128,000 level.

At the current average growth rate, these MVRV milestones can be reached in early June and late June respectively. Currently, with the breakout of the mood swings between optimistic and cautious profit management, everyone’s eyes are on Bitcoin’s next move.

STH MVRV predicts key sale area as Bitcoin holds over $100,000

Bitcoin is now facing important technical tests, with the $100,000 level acting as a key support zone that can determine the next major move for the market. The Bulls must defend the region to confirm a strong bullish structure and maintain momentum of more than 40% higher BTC since the April 9 low. Bitcoin has now spent more than five weeks on a sustained uptrend after only summoning more than 12% last week, but the battle is not over yet.

If Bitcoin can hold clear supply pressures of over $105K above $105K, many analysts think it may break through price discovery. The momentum is being built, but the next step will be decisive. On-chain metrics provide additional clues, according to crypto analyst Axel Adler. The current STH MVRV (market value for short-term holders vs. realized value) is 1.09, marking the moderate profitability of short-term holders, which is a necessary condition for a sustainable growth trend.

Bitcoin Short-term Holder Cost Base, MVRV, Market Cap, Capacity of Implementation | Source: Axel Adler on X

However, when the MVRV reaches 1.25 (target ≈$118K), it usually triggers huge sales pressure and strengthens about 1.35 (≈$). If the current growth rate holds, these levels can be reached in early June and late June respectively. Adler stressed that these predictions are linear, meaning that true momentum may accelerate or slow based on macro and market sentiment.

For now, Bitcoin is still in a bullish structure, but eyes are watching how it navigates that critical area. Cleaning impetus over $105K could spark a new wave of demand, and any weakness below $101,000 may quickly shift.

Technical Perspective: Price Testing is Critical Demand

Bitcoin faces a strong rejection rate slightly below the $105,000 resistance zone, and is currently trading at close to $101,765. The chart shows that after a sharp episode of April lows, BTC entered the merger range, with price lawsuits repeatedly testing the area of 103,600-$105,000, with no confirmed breakthrough. Now, the area is a critical resistance, and the bulls must clear to resume the uptrend and turn the price toward previous heights.

BTC Find Support Adounr $101K | Source: BTCUSDT Chart in Transactions — BTC Find Support About $101K | Source: BTCUSDT Chart in Transactions

On the downside, the $100,000 mark has become a key psychological and technical support. A breakdown below this level could trigger a $95,000 area, which is also in line with the previous merger structure in early May. However, the volume is still relatively poor compared to the breakout candle in early May, suggesting that this current back-training may be temporary unless supported by sales pressure.

The 200-day EMA (green) and SMA (yellow) are well below the current price, supporting a bullish structure in the medium term. However, if BTC continues to reject at local highs without the number and momentum of updates, traders may start reevaluating the risk.

Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView

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