According to former Bitmex boss Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin could hit $1 million in about three years. He made this prediction on May 15, pointing to what he called two main forces that pushed cryptocurrency prices into the sky. It’s a bold call – 900% of the gains from today’s ranks – it depends on significant changes in currency flows and bond value.
The power of Bitcoin
Hayes believes that stricter capital control around the world will push investors towards borderless assets. He also warned that the U.S. Treasury is expected to “depreciate” as Treasury debt continues to grow. Hayes said that if both trends play a role, Bitcoin would win a lot of money that cannot move freely in the traditional market.
Election Year and Policy Volatility
He chose 2028 as the target year because that is the next time the U.S. president votes. The pro-Ripto government can improve Bitcoin’s status even more. But governments mining rules may slow things down. Hayes pointed out that Trump was an example of a friendly stance and suggested another leader might flip the script.
Source: Arthur Hayes blog post.
Regulatory conflict between Europe and China
In Europe, authorities seem keen to strengthen control over the use of cryptocurrencies. Hayes warned that the European Central Bank could try to stop it in a way that pushes people toward digital coins. However, China has avoided banning private bitcoin ownership, knowing that enforcing such rules would be counterproductive and fuel the underground market.
Historical goals and predictions
This is not Hayes’ first big bet. Last month, he said $100,000 is back. Prior to that, he viewed the $70,000 central area as a possible low. Other voices in finance are even more optimistic.
BTCUSD trading at $103,332 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView.com
Over the next decade, Fidelity has raised its target seven times. Michael Saylor, who leads the strategy and has the largest Bitcoin hiding among publicly traded companies, believes Bitcoin climbs to $100 trillion in market value (about $500,000 per coin) and by 2045, he talks about $13 million.
What will happen next
By 2028, to reach $1 million, Bitcoin’s market value will need to expand to about $20 trillion. This is almost twice as much as today’s gold market. This means a large number of new buyers from large institutions to average savers.
Any serious regulatory crackdown or rising bond yields could trigger wrenches in these plans. But if global funding continues to seek shelter and fiat currencies continue to weaken, Hays may rise faster than many would expect.
Featured images by Gemini Imagen, charts by TradingView
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