The United States has just conducted an emergency solar storm exercise. The real deal will be a disaster
A group of participants from several U.S. agencies participated in the first exercise, which tested their preparation for severe solar storms, revealing the major cracks in scientists’ ability to predict space weather, which could put critical systems at risk.
Space Weather Operations, Research and Mitigation (Sworm) contingents, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), organized a space weather event designed to better understand the U.S. government’s preparation for the upcoming solar storm. The results were recently published in a report that highlighted significant restrictions on space weather forecasts.
The exercise was held from May 8 to 9, 2024 at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Maryland and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) location in Denver, Colorado. The space weather scenario is divided into four modules involving a series of solar events, resulting in adverse effects on the Earth and space systems. Effects include radio communication power outages, loss of GPS capabilities, power outages, strong radiation exposure from astronauts and satellites, and the inability to track and communicate with orbital satellites.
One of the modules will take place in the future, requiring participants to imagine a hypothetical situation that occurs in the eight days of January and February 2028. In this case, NOAA tracks an active area on the surface of the sun that rotates to a position pointing toward the Earth. To make things more complicated, the crew of two astronauts are boarding the moon on the Orion spacecraft, while the other two are already on the surface of the moon as part of the Artemis mission. This exercise requires participants to consider whether their agency or organization has policies or agreements in the event of a large space weather event.
Coincidentally, this is the largest geomagnetic storm in more than 20 years, happening at the same time as the practice. On May 10, 2024, the G5 or extreme geomagnetic storm hit the Earth as it drove a large amount of plasma from the sun’s corona (also known as coronal mass ejection). The G5 storm has had some harmful effects on Earth’s power grid, as well as some spectacular aurora seen in most parts of the world. The storm also increases the atmospheric density in low-Earth orbits, which can reach orders of magnitude, which in turn leads to atmospheric drag affecting the satellite.
Space weather forecasters monitored the sun’s activity and the coronavirus mass pop-up, but these storms are hard to predict. “We never know what it is going to be, what is the composition of the CME until it is only 1 million miles from the Earth, which is only 15 to 45 minutes there.” “That’s when we see the composition of the CME. How strong is it magnetically? What is its speed of motion? Will it connect with the Earth?”
Participants found that the most challenging aspect of space weather forecasting was the inability to predict how the coronavirus mass pop-up would affect the Earth. Scientists were able to know the real impact of coronal mass ejection within 30 minutes before the impact, when the direction of the magnetic field of the particle cloud became obvious.
The report shows that investing in the next generation of space weather satellites and developing and deploying more sensors to monitor space weather drivers. It also recommends that U.S. agencies work with international partners and the private sector.
“Continuous preparations for space weather events are crucial, as extreme events have the potential to seriously affect our country’s critical infrastructure and threaten our national security,” the report reads. “Just as we prepare for earthquakes, hurricanes and cyberattacks, our country must act before major space weather events occur.”
