As altcoin inflows remain low, Bitcoin’s volatility will recover – calm down before the storm?

Despite the price drop, new data from CryptoQuant suggests that the overall market may remain resilient. According to data from the analytics platform, the increase in price volatility has not yet translated into a significant surge in exchange inflows. This shows that most market participants, especially long-term holders, are not in a hurry to sell.

For Bitcoin, holding the above $103.6K support zone remains crucial. If the Bulls stabilized here, it could move towards $112K for the high price ever. Before deciding on the next major trend, the market is now paying close attention to breakdown or confirming support.

Bitcoin holds $100,000 amid geopolitical uncertainty

Despite the wave of negative sentiment triggered by new conflicts in the Middle East, Bitcoin continues to show resilience, by firmly exceeding the key to $100,000. The latest escalation between Israel and Iran, coupled with broader macroeconomic fears, including rising inflation rates and ongoing pressure on U.S. Treasury earnings, has injected new uncertainty into financial markets. However, Bitcoin’s ability to absorb shocks and maintain critical support levels is a sign of intensity in the current cycle.

Many analysts believe that Bitcoin is laying the foundation for a major expansion phase. A decisive breakthrough above the highest level of $112,000 could push BTC toward price discovery, marking the beginning of an explosive bullish leg. The Bulls appear to be in control, but market participants are cautious given the rise in global systemic risks.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, shared timely insights that recent increase in price volatility has not translated into growth in sales activity. Moreno noted that exchange inflows (especially from altcoins) are relatively low. This is important because historically the top of the local market is the exchange of sharp peaks in altcoin deposits, indicating investors’ fears and profit-making behavior. At present, this dynamic does not exist.

This shows that the market has not experienced extensive surrender or panic sales. Instead, long-term holders and large players seem to sit tight and position the next leg. Despite the risks, Bitcoin’s current price action continues to support the argument of sustained power and the potential to break through the rally, as long as macro conditions do not deteriorate further. Now, all eyes are focused on BTC’s ability to recover $110,000 and test the $112,000 psychological disorder.

BTC test key support area below $109K

The daily chart shows that Bitcoin merged between $103,600 and $109,300 after rejecting an all-time high of $112,000 earlier this month. Recent volatility has been triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, causing BTC to fall below the $106K level, briefly marking the $103,600 support zone. But buyers quickly stepped in and pushed the price back to the $105,000-$106,000 region.

The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) provides short-term support of approximately $103,400, closely aligned with level demand. Meanwhile, the 100-day and 200-day SMA is $93,966, and $95,650 is well below the current price, suggesting that the broader uptrend is complete.

The surge in the number during the decline suggests panic for sale, but subsequent recovery rates suggest strong purchase interest is close to $103,000. To regain control of the Bulls, BTC had to regain $109,300 in resistance and try to break through $112K.

However, a breakdown below $103,600 will invalidate the bullish structure and open the door to the $96K-$98K area. Until then, BTC maintained scope limits in high-risk mergers. Daily proximity above or below these key levels may define the next directional movement of Bitcoin. The Bulls hold the line – but how long?

Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView