Bitcoin breaks macro rules: Despite the Hawkesh signal, risk appetite increases
Bitcoin trading is slightly above the key $103,600 level, a key support zone that has been a key threshold for the Bulls throughout the cycle. Analysts warn that if not held, BTC could quickly drop below $100,000, resulting in a wider correction across the entire cryptocurrency market. This is the global market’s reaction to escalating geopolitical risks, with Israel launching an unexpected attack on Iran, prompting immediate revenge and cheering for commodities, stocks and digital assets.
Despite the turmoil, Bitcoin still shows relative strength, and even as investors flee risky assets, Bitcoin maintains a psychological level of over $10,000. Top analyst DarkFost highlights a unique dynamic in this cycle: anomaly decoupling between bitcoin and bond yields. Historically, the rising revenue of the U.S. treasury coincides with the reduction in cryptocurrency. However, in the current environment, Bitcoin continues to trend upward, even if yields are close to some of its highest levels in history.
According to crypto analyst Darkfost, the bullish momentum of Bitcoin appears to be increasingly affected by the weaknesses of the US dollar index (DXY). BTC shows strong acceleration every time the dollar retreats, suggesting that global liquidity flows may prefer Bitcoin as an alternative macro hedge. The next few days will be crucial.
Bitcoin shows resilience in geopolitical risks
Bitcoin fell more than 6% above the resistance that failed to exceed $112,000, raising concerns that bears could push prices to the key support below. However, despite volatility, BTC remains resilient (more than $103,600 in stake), even with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran’s rattled global markets.
DarkFost stressed the importance of macroeconomic indicators such as DXY and U.S. Treasury production. These indicators increasingly determine institutional sentiment and global liquidity flow. Traditionally, when DXY and Climbing are generated, capital will exit risk assets, resulting in a thorough correction of Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. Historically, this macro environment marked the beginning of a bear market for BTC.
Conversely, when DXY and yields start to stall or fall, investor confidence in risky assets tends to return. Such periods usually coincide with the Fed’s monetary easing or speculation about future lower interest rates, which is a condition for igniting a bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency sector.
According to DarkFost, what sets the cycle apart is the divergence between Bitcoin and increasing production. Despite the production reaching multi-year highs, BTC continues to rise, especially when DXY is soft. This decoupling represents a possible structural change in how Bitcoin behaves relative to traditional financial indicators.
One explanation for this anomaly is the evolving perception of Bitcoin as a macro hedge and store of value. With inflation concerns and rising sovereign debt risks, institutional capital may now view not only BTC as a speculative asset, but also a hedge against systemic risks. If this narrative continues to attract attention, Bitcoin can play a new role in the global financial landscape, a way to redefine its relationship with macro forces.
Bulls defend key support for revolving
Bitcoin is currently trading around $105,300 amid unrest triggered by geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty. The chart shows that BTC briefly fell below the $103,600 support level (a key area of level demand) but managed to quickly reclaim it, suggesting a strong interest from buyers in lower-level buyers.
The 50, 100 and 200 segment SMAs gather between $105,950 and $106,600 and currently act as dynamic resistance. In order for Bitcoin to regain bullish momentum, it must surpass this fusion of moving averages and regain the 106,600-$107,000 region. If you don’t, it might open the door for another retest at the $103,600 level, which has been tested several times since early May.
During the recent decline, the number surged, indicating surrender or forced sales, usually short-term recovery rates. However, buyers will want to see continued strength over $106,000 to see it as a real reversal, rather than relief.
Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView
Editing process For Bitcoin experts, focus on thorough research, accurate and impartial content. We adhere to strict procurement standards and each page is diligently evaluated by our top technical experts and experienced editorial team. This process ensures the integrity, relevance and value of our content to our readers.
