Currently, Bitcoin’s stable range (ATH) between the two major historical price levels, between the historical height (ATH) of $112,000 and the peak of the previous cycle, at $103,600, will resume in December. Despite rising global tensions, especially the conflict between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin still puts firm demand areas higher than key demand areas, demonstrating a strong bullish willingness even in an uncertain macro environment.
Market participants are paying close attention to this integration phase as it can serve as the basis for Bitcoin’s next broad initiative. The Bulls seem to have confidence, price action indicates resilience to multiple inclinations, while strong buyer interest emerges in the $104,000 range.
Supporting this bullish structure, new insights from crypto literacy suggest that the momentum of CDD (coin day destroyed) has dropped significantly in recent weeks. The indicator compares the average CDD over the past 30 days with the average CDD over the last month, highlighting the reduction in spending activity for long-term holders. Historically, this behavior reflects beliefs among experienced investors and often indicates the beginning of a new accumulation phase.
Bitcoin fundamentals strengthen in volatility and uncertainty
Bitcoin continues to integrate bulls and bears within a tight range, unable to produce significant breakthroughs or collapses. While short-term traders are still on the edge, Bitcoin’s fundamentals seem to be strengthening the ground. Institutional adoption is rising, long-term supply is tightening, and the amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges continues to decline, a classic sign of increased investor confidence and long-term accumulation.
Meanwhile, global tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty remain rising. The Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran shocked the market, while fears about inflation and U.S. Treasury production added additional pressure. Furthermore, geopolitical shifts in global trade dynamics are driving turbulent environments. However, Bitcoin seems to flourish in this chaos, thus strengthening its narrative as an alternative to emerging value and traditional financial systems.
Crypto analyst Axel Adler analyzes key insights into this long-term intensity by analyzing the destroyed coin day (CDD) momentum metric. This metric measures how long-term coin held is moving. A drop below zero usually reduces sales for long-term holders, indicating accumulation rather than distribution.
CDD momentum has shown a sustained decline below zero in recent weeks, consistent with a significant slowdown in older coin transfers. After several local peaks earlier this year, this cooling period shows that experienced investors are now retreating from the market rather than exiting, but choosing to hold.
Historically, this behavior was ahead of a huge upward momentum. If Bitcoin maintains its current support level and long-term holders continue to remain the same, it could set the stage for a strong breakthrough and the start of a new leg in the cycle.
BTC price analysis: Bulls hold support after rejecting $109K
As shown in the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is currently trading around $106,127 after rejecting the resistance level at the $109,300 level. Prices attempted to retract that critical resistance zone but failed to gain momentum, resulting in a brief pullback. Despite being rejected, BTC still maintains a record above the 200-cycle moving average (red line) and $106,000, which can now be used as short-term support.
The quantity remains relatively stable, which suggests that the market is in a wider range of uncertainty. The 50 SMA (blue) and 100 SMA (green) have been flattened, highlighting the formation of the integration model between $103,600 and $109,300. The range continues to dominate short-term price action, with the Bull defending the lower boundary and rejecting higher levels.
Continuous movements over $109,300 will open the door to tests at all-time highs and potentially begin the price discovery phase. Conversely, if BTC loses the $103,600 support zone, the downside target could shift to $100,000.
This range remains the key for short-term traders before breaking through. The integration around the key moving average and support levels suggests that the bulls still have strong grip, but volatility remains a persistent risk as macro conditions develop.
Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView
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