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Peter Chung, head of research at Presto, quantitative trading firm, conducted a live interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday, reiterating his firm belief that Bitcoin can reach $210,000 by the end of 2025, believing that the asset has become a macro level during times of stress in the global financial system.
Bitcoin is set to parabola
He began with the opening ceremony of the interview. “The target price of Bitcoin, driven by institutional adoption and global liquidity expansion, remains $210,000.” He stressed that the same framework is the basis for Presto’s valuation of Ether, adding: “For ETH, our target price is based on the ETH-BTC ratio of 0.05. We still stick to that. We stick to that, too, reflecting the community’s efforts to address the value penetration issue.”
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Chung delayed the recommendation, and the callback earlier this year invalidated the model: “Granted, not everything is expected by what we have expected so far this year (especially the macro outlook and its reaction to its market), but in hindsight, it is actually a healthy correction that paves the way for further reassessment of Bitcoin as a ManainStream Asset.”
Within Presto, the main task of this month is “trying to figure out anything in the market (whether it’s confidence or some kind of global order) and how these assets position it in people’s portfolios.” Their conclusion: There is no systematic breakdown that keeps secular drivers intact.
The longest exchange was when the anchor asked why gold soared when Bitcoin initially lagged behind. Chung provides a granular classification of Bitcoin behavior: “Bitcoin has two faces: digital gold and risky boarding assets. Most of the time Bitcoin behaves like risky assets. […]. But it was during the crisis that Bitcoin behaved like gold […]. These moments are rare. It only happens when the market doubts about the stability of the US ruling financial system […] That’s what we saw in April. ”
When asked to determine the most statistically significant investment behind the $210,000 figure, Chung pointed out what he called “global liquidity expansion,” a variable that tracks through the balance sheet trajectory of major central banks and large sovereign wealth funds. Despite slowing growth in the U.S. money supply, it has re-fueled in China and recently re-fueled in the euro zone, which Presto believes will leak into the cryptocurrency market through cross-border flows.
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He also highlighted the role of institutional ordering data, the company’s role in discovering the 2024 rally. He noted: “Barrow the proportion of Bitcoin permanent futures trading in more than $10 million in blocks.”
Why $210,000 is not “optimistic”
Although the comprehensive figure attracted headlines, Chung believes that $210,000 is conservative relative to the historical adoption curve: “If you map the network effect data of Bitcoin onto the monetization path of the Internet between 1994 and 2007, then your level is well over $210,000. We are like this, we are like this, and we are like this precisely because of Itances It tallances tarances tarances tarances tarances parist sail sail sail strisk and liquidity constraints.
Nevertheless, he admits that the path is unlikely to be linear: “Our mission is not a precise week or month prophet; our mission is to determine whether anything (scope, decentralization, adoption, adoption) in the structured paper breaks. So far, nothing.”
The anchor puts pressure on him, forcing him to revise downwards. Chung named two red lines: a lasting collapse in true global M2, which would kill risk capital and suppress liquidity premiums, pushing scarce digital assets higher, while fatal consensus errors within the Bitcoin network or governance failures – events he highlighted “never happened in fifteen years” but must include any quantitative risk model.
Beyond that, Presto regards April’s correction as a “medium clearance”, which flushs overheated levers before the next leg. “Bitcoin has tried to catch up,” Chung said. Whether this momentum will push assets all the way to six-figure territory on New Year’s Eve, he used his words to “depending on whether investors choose to price geopolitical insurance now or after the next tremor.”
At press time, BTC traded at $94,983.
Featured images from YouTube, charts from TradingView.com
