Bitcoin flashes early buying signals? – After local peak, advanced UTXO ratio dropped sharply
Bitcoin faces huge sales pressure as Israel launches a preemptive strike against Iran. The news caused a shock wave through global financial markets, triggering risk sentiment and sharp liquidation on major crypto exchanges. BTC fell more than 5% in the consequences, briefly immersing below the key moving average, but ultimately putting the company above the $100,000 psychological mark.
Despite the surge in volatility, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Top analyst Axel Adler shared data showing that the advanced net UTXO supply rate, a key indicator used to identify market inflection points, has sharply tended toward 0.96 to 0.806 from the local peak on June 11 just 48 hours later. Historically, if the ratio continues to decline and stabilizes below 0.80 on the daily chart, it will flash the classic “buy signal”, usually before strong market recovery rates.
As BTC keeps critical support and long-term holders’ convictions remain high, many market participants are paying close attention to confirm the bottom. As the macro narrative develops, everyone’s eyes are on Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its foundation and it is possible to use this correction as a foundation for the next leg higher.
Bitcoin prepares for geopolitical volatility expansion
Bitcoin is approaching a critical moment as it hovers in the $104,000-$105K region, with analysts looking at a potential breakthrough of $112K ever. Successful push beyond this resistance can trigger explosive market expansion and send BTC into a new phase of price discovery. While the Bulls appear to be under control, the growing macroeconomic risks, including rising tensions in the Middle East, fear of inflation and rising U.S. treasury production – are creating a volatile environment that challenges investor confidence.
Adler highlighted a key chain-chain signal: the premium net UTXO supply rate on June 11 reached 0.96 on June 11 and has since dropped to 0.806. Historically, if the ratio drops below 0.80 on the daily chart and remains, it usually marks a textbook “buy signal”, which indicates a strong accumulation of accumulation. Adler noted that the short-term basis of the new microgroup could form the $102K-$105K range. But if that ratio continues to decline and BTC’s losses are below $100,000, the market may see a new wave of sales pressure.
Risk sentiment in the global market has intensified over the past 24 hours. Oil and gold soared due to concerns about wider regional conflicts and investors seek security. Meanwhile, the stock market slid sharply after Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran. In cryptocurrencies, over $360 million of long positions were liquidated overnight in major concentrated exchanges, emphasizing emotional vulnerability.
Despite the turmoil, Bitcoin’s ability to maintain the main support zone demonstrates resilience. Market observers are closely monitoring the $101,000 $105K area, as a battlefield where BTC can be determined as a bullish breakout or enters a deeper correction.
BTC Price Analysis: $103,600 Key Support Hold Key
The chart shows that Bitcoin trading is priced at $105,056 after falling from the $112K level earlier this week. BTC is currently hovering above the key support zone, between $103,600 and $105,000. The series has served as both resistance and support on multiple occasions in recent months and is now a key battlefield for short-term trends.
The 50-day moving average is close to $103,188, close to the horizontal support at $103,600, which enhances the area as a potential bounce zone. If the Bulls can keep this level, the setting is still for another attempt to constructively with $109,300 resistance, which attempts limit rising movements throughout May and June.
However, the surge in volume during the recent decline suggests that increased sales pressures may be related to macro titles, including the Israel-Iran conflict. If the price closes below $103,600, the next major support can be found near the 100-day moving average close to the $93,799 average.
Currently, BTC is combining the above support, but the path forward depends on whether the Bulls can defend the area and restore the $112K momentum. A confirmed collapse could invalidate the bullish structure and open the door for a deeper retracement.
Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView
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