Bitcoin is stronger than $104,000, despite the recent growing volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. After weeks of round-trip price action, BTC appears to be consolidating its preparations for the decisive move. While some analysts call for deeper corrections, others remain bullish, predicting new all-time highs in the coming weeks as market momentum builds.
Investor sentiment is split, with bond markets and global trade tensions increasing pressure on risky assets. However, chain chain data provides a more optimistic outlook. According to CryptoQuant, the current HODL level (the proportion of immovable bitcoins) is the highest point in the past two years. This shows that long-term holders remain confident and choose to accumulate or stay on the verge of on the spot rather than sell.
As supply tightens and purchase pressure increases, this increased HODL behavior is usually performed before the rising major price transfer. As Bitcoin’s basics remain strong and volatility gradually recovers, the key resistance level for all eyes is about $109,000, and support is close to $103,600 to determine the next major direction for BTC. Whether the market chooses to break through or pullback, the current settings suggest that the coming weeks are crucial to the trajectory of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin faces critical tests amid global tensions and recording HODL levels
Bitcoin is at a critical level as global tensions rise and macroeconomic uncertainty shapes a broader financial landscape. As the U.S.-China trade dispute intensifies, bond markets flash warning signs, both traditional and cryptocurrency markets are on the edge. However, Bitcoin continues to show resilience, holding more than $104,000 as investors await the decisive move. Despite its strength, a high breakthrough above $112,000 remains crucial to confirming the continuation of the bullish structure.
Analysts remain split. Some view the current integration as a healthy pause before gradually increasing, while others point out that volatility in retail demand is growing, and retail demand is a sign of incoming corrections. Nevertheless, a key indicator still shows the basis of strength.
According to top analyst Axel Adler, the Bitcoin exchange flow to network activity ratio emphasizes a strong on-chain signal: the current HODL level has been at its highest point in the past two years. This ratio compares the BTC movement of the exchange with the overall blockchain activity and at low levels indicates that fewer coins are sent to the sales exchange. The high Hodder behavior signal promised by long-term holders has increased, reducing circulating supply and potentially laying the foundation for supply-driven breakthroughs.
Historically, this situation has been before major gatherings, especially when network activity increases and decreases exchange inflows. While external risks remain and short-term sentiment seems cautious, this long-term holding trend can help macroeconomic conditions stabilize to support higher prices. Currently, Bitcoin is balancing a potential breakthrough and a counterattack, and the next few weeks may define the midterm direction.
BTC price analysis: tight range signal incoming volatility
Bitcoin is currently trading around $104,892 on the 4-hour chart, with a tightening range of $109,300 between key support at $103,600. After failing to hold over $110,000 in late May, BTC retreated and now hovered above 200 SMA, which closely matches the $103,600 support zone, making that level a key area to defend.
The 34 EMA and 50 SMA began to flatten, indicating a lack of obvious trend directions, while the 100 and 200 SMAs act as dynamic support zones. Prices are now compressed between short-term and long-term moving averages, which suggests accumulation before breaking out. A decisive move over $106,000 will indicate new bullish momentum and could lead to another test of the $109,300 resistance. On the other hand, failures below $103,600 may trigger a clearer back trial.
During this merger, the volume is relatively low, which is a common sign that a larger move is brewing. Traders should pay attention to the surge in numbers to confirm the next direction. For now, BTC still has scope, and the next few meetings may define whether the bulls will return to control or that the bears will occupy the short-term momentum.
Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView
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