Bitcoin is set to soar? Top analysts contact BTC surges with global money supply boom
Bitcoin broke the $100,000 level this week to $104,000, and then reduced by about $103,000. The move comes after news that U.S. and Chinese officials will sit behind Switzerland talking about possible trade deals. The market responded quickly. Optimism recovered, and Bitcoin rose accordingly. But analysts went beyond the headlines. Global liquidity is a true story.
Global M2 reaches $111 trillion
Julien Bittel, a macro researcher for global macro investors, believes that the global M2 money supply is a good indicator for Bitcoin to go. He provides a chart showing a 12-week lag between the increase in M2 and the price of top cryptocurrencies. In short, when M2 increases, Bitcoin is about three months later.
Many of you have been asking for updated global M2 with Bitcoin charts. OK, this is…
Yes – it still tells the same story:
We want to be higher… pic.twitter.com/kv7qse9ign
— Julien Bittel, CFA (@bitteljulien) May 9, 2025
Between early 2023 and early 2024, global M2 increased from $98 trillion to just over $1008 trillion. Bitcoin appears and finally breaks over $100,000. But in mid-2024, M2 stopped for a while.
Bitcoin also gradually declined, falling below $80,000 during this period. Bittel calls this range the merge phase. Today, the M2 moves again – quality. It passed $111 trillion. If this trend continues, BTC can continue to upgrade to mid-2025.
“We want to be higher,” Betel said, pointing out the strong growth of global M2 as a signal.
Others think Bitcoin is the top dog
Not everyone agrees with Bittel’s schedule. Analyst Benjamin Cohen doubts the idea that crypto assets have always lagged behind changes in liquidity. He noted that before M2 peaked, Bitcoin reached its highest point in 2017 and 2021. At 12 weeks, this is inconsistent with M2’s leading BTC theory.
Cohen offers another point of view. He believes that Bitcoin is likely to lead to changes in M2. If so, then the recent rise in coins may make us strongly say that global liquidity may decrease in the coming months.
If anything #bitcoin Leading liquidity, not falling behind?
Many people show this chart where they shortened the global M2 by 3-4 months and showed BTC afterwards.
The problem is that in 2021, this offset indicates that M2 lasted for 6 months after BTC rose. pic.twitter.com/gpkbw9jbog
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) May 8, 2025
FTX crashes still echo
Cohen also mentioned what happened when Bitcoin fell in 2022. The drop coincides with the bottoming of the M2 – but the drop lasts longer due to the FTX crash. He insists that Bitcoin price movements are not always on the same schedule as M2. Like an experienced exchange failure can ruin the pace.
This view finds another type of prediction. If BTC is behind instead of leading, the current rally may indicate danger on the horizon, not resilience.
Featured images from Pexels, charts for TradingView
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