Bitcoin lags behind stocks over the past 2 weeks – temporary pause or trend shift?
Bitcoin soared more than 50% from its April lows, and despite growing macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin showed significant strength. After marking the $112,000 mark (setting a new all-time high), BTC entered the merger phase in an effort to break the higher. Currently, prices hover below its ATH, finding support at the $100,000 level amid rising U.S. bond yields and increasing geopolitical tensions, especially the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China. These dynamics introduce a layer of systemic risks in the global market, fueling volatility and opportunities.
Top analyst Daan shared his insights, highlighting the key difference between crypto and stocks: Bitcoin has performed poorly over the past two weeks. Although BTC initially surpassed traditional markets in the recent tariff standoff, its momentum has stalled, even as major equity indexes continue to consolidate near local highs.
This weakened correlation suggests that while Bitcoin may benefit from long-term uncertainty, its short-term trajectory is still susceptible to wider market sentiment and capital rotation. As the week unfolds, everyone’s eyes are focused on BTC’s ability to obtain resistance levels and whether it causes or falls behind the next macro-driven action.
The market is waiting for direction
Despite recent weakness in global markets, Bitcoin may lay the foundation for a decisive move as it puts the company’s shares exceeding $10,000. While the leading cryptocurrencies performed in most asset classes this year (more than 50% from their April low), Momentum stagnated, below its all-time high of $112K. The current moratorium is amid increasing systemic risks, with the U.S. economy entering a tight financial environment with rising bond yields, stubborn inflation and an increase in trade tensions with China.
According to Daan, Bitcoin has performed poorly in the past two weeks, unlike its usual leadership skills in volatile macroscopic times. Although BTC led the rally in the recent tariff drama, it has since entered a consolidation phase, even as the stock hovers around local highs. This indicates a weakened correlation between traditional markets and digital assets.
Historically, Bitcoin is often a major indicator of broader risk sentiment, leading stocks in both upside and disadvantage. The question now is whether the stall will breathe temporarily before it relapses or is early signs of correction more deeply.
As macro pressures intensify, Bitcoin’s response in the coming days will be crucial. A successful push over $112K will indicate strengthening strength, while a decline below $103K may expose downside risks.
BTC Weekly Chart Analysis: Key Areas Below Historical Highs
Currently, Bitcoin’s merger is slightly below its all-time high of $112K, with trading around $104,571 on the weekly chart. After reaching its highest point of $106,854 in the past week, BTC showed signs of rejection approaching a resistance level of $109,300, a region that has now been tested several times in this cycle. Despite a slight decline of about 1.07% per week, the price is still firmly above the $103,600 support zone, which is a key level to note.
The chart shows that BTC is still well above its 34-week EMA (currently $89,922), suggesting that the long-term bullish structure remains intact. The merger in this $103k – $109k range may represent a healthy price digest before a potential breakthrough attempt.
The number on the weekly chart decreased slightly from the recent peak, indicating less active participation in the recent push. But as long as BTC stays above $103,600 and keeps its uptrend, the Bulls are still in control. A strong breakthrough over $109,300 may have opened the door to price discovery and runs over $115K.
Instead, failures below the support range will mark short-term weaknesses and may trigger deeper corrections toward the $95K – $100K area.
Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView
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