Bitcoin long-term holders quiet – Chain signal prompts classic accumulation
Bitcoin is driving a high-risk environment as tensions escalate and exacerbates macroeconomic risks. The flagship cryptocurrency maintains higher support than critical support with critical support, while the Bulls remain in control for the time being. But hawkish conditions pose a real threat to Bitcoin’s strength, driven by rising yields in the U.S. Treasury, fueled by inflationary issues and geopolitical instability. A drop below psychological $100,000 may shift bearish sharply.
Analysts disagree on what will happen next. Some point to the macro environment and see the potential for deeper correction. Others remain confident, calling for long-term structural demands, imminent breakthroughs and new all-time highs.
Supporting the bullish view, new data from crypto-literacy highlights a strong accumulation trend for long-term holders (LTHS). According to their study, spending activity in the cohort is now close to historical lows, often associated with an early accumulation phase. In fact, in the last four similar situations, Bitcoin has risen to 18-25% in the next 6 to 8 weeks.
While short-term uncertainty blinds the outlook, the combination of low LTH spending and elastic support levels suggests that significant moves may be formed. Whether it is a breakthrough or a collapse, it depends on the development of global conditions in the next few days.
Long-term holder signal strength, Bitcoin can be consolidated $105K $105K
Bitcoin has entered the merger phase after its powerful rally ranged from $74,000 to a new all-time high of $112,000. Although the market has lowered from its peak, BTC still has resilience above $105,000, a key level that can now be supported. This tight trading scope reflects a broader uncertainty as investors await an increase in geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic shifts in the Middle East before proposing the next major action.
The next few weeks will be decisive. A change in resolutions on the Israel-Iran conflict or currency expectations may cause breakthroughs. Conversely, extended volatility or new macro shocks may delay the next phase of the cycle. Still, many analysts remain bullish on the long-term view, and BTC is expected to soon enter the price discovery and exceed its $112K ATH.
Coupled with this optimism, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed to the compelling chain signal. The entire long-term holder (LTH) cohort shows spending activity around historical lows, often associated with the accumulation phase. In the last four similar cases, Bitcoin rose to 18-25% over the next 6-8 weeks. This shows the strong belief of experienced holders.
Adler also noted that the current weakness in the lth binary indicator is reinforced by other bullish signals: CDD momentum (the coin day was destroyed) and a positive shift in the MVRV Z score that is still MVRV. Both indicators have historically been consistent with trend continuation and underestimation periods.
Together, these on-chain metrics show that Bitcoin is quietly building a foundation for long-term holders to accumulate rather than distribute. Although short-term volatility may persist, the broader structure points to potential breakthroughs once uncertainty clears.
BTC price range established as the market waits for breakthroughs
Bitcoin currently trades around $105,569 on the daily chart, within the integration range between $103,600 support and $109,300 resistors. Now that the range has been respected for weeks, BTC has repeatedly tested both boundaries, without confirmation of breakthroughs or crashes. The $103,600 level (Bitcoin’s previous all-time high since December 2024) has now become a key demand zone. Buyers have been stepping up close to this level, preventing further shortcomings despite recent macro volatility and Middle East conflict issues.
From a moving average perspective, BTC remains above the simple moving averages of 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green), indicating that the medium-term momentum is still positive. The 200-day SMA (red) is much lower than the current price, enhancing the broader uptrend of BTC. Closed over $109,300 per day indicates a recovery price discovery that could trigger new bullish momentum and potentially drive over $112K.
But if $103,600 cannot be held in the case of new macroeconomic fears or negative news, then BTC could fall into the $97,000 to $98,000 range. Until then, the market seemed to be in a waiting mode. As long as the support level continues to attract buyers, and a higher time frame structure can remain constructive.
Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView
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