Bitcoin LTH is not over yet – Can institutions absorb the remaining supply?
Bitcoin soared to $107,000 on Sunday, then quickly reviewed, shaking investor confidence and triggering new market volatility. Many hope this move will lead to a clear breakthrough in price discovery, instead strengthening the current merger range between $105,000. Analysts are still split – some view it as a healthy pause before the greater push, while others warn that deeper corrections are needed if BTC loses $100,000 in support.
As the market digests this callback, the data on the chain adds an important layer to the story. According to CryptoQuant, supply held by long-term holders (defined as wallets holding BTC for 18 months to 3 years) has dropped by 2 million BTC since November 2023. This huge wave of distribution shows that long-term players have been gradually making profits as prices climb. While this is not a guarantee of a collapse, it does highlight the demand for new entrants (such as institutions) to absorb strong demand for sales pressure.
With the price rolling up $100,000, the main resistance near ATH is imminent, and the next decisive move could move forward for the Bitcoin trajectory to the summer tone.
Long-term holders take a step back, Bitcoin strives for momentum
Bitcoin is now at a composition or bankruptcy level, as the Bulls aims to defend the crucial $100,000 support zone. Prices have returned to familiar territory after a failed breakout of $107,000 on Sunday, frustrating investors expected to enter price discovery. While some people see this as a normal merger before the next leg, others are concerned that a deeper backtrack might occur if BTC loses $100,000 in flooring.
The market faces obvious resistance, between $105,000, and an all-time high price of nearly 109K $109K, a liquidity zone that could trigger an aggressive purchase if damaged. However, recent rejections suggest that sellers are still influential at a higher level, and short-term volatility may increase as the tug-of-war between the bull and bears intensifies.
Increasing this uncertainty is the behavior of long-term holders. Analyst Axel Adler revealed that since November 2023, the money for holding BTC’s wallet for 18 months to three years has exceeded 2 million BTC, worth about $138 billion. This huge distribution wave may have contributed to most recent gatherings, but has also attracted attention. Adler noted that the cohort still has about 500,000 BTC, which can be sold later this year and may add stress at weakness.
While institutional demand may absorb some future supply, the corporate sector has shown new benefits, but the broader market must remain cautious. As prices merge, investor sentiment is pending. Whether the Bulls retract higher levels or deeper corrections depends on how Bitcoin responds to the current stress test at $100,000.
Price action details: Bulls try to restore power
The signs of Bitcoin show new signs of strength as it trades at $105,389, trying to surpass its recent resistance to approach the 106K $107K $107K area. This level limits previous gatherings and retractions will indicate that bullishness continues to its all-time high. The price has successfully defended $100,000 in psychological support, which is now a strong demand zone, currently strengthening the current SMA of about $92,994 for the 200-day SMA, while the 200-day EMA is close to $88,664.
The number appears to have changed slightly compared to the surge earlier this month, suggesting some hesitation among the bulls. However, the structure remains intact: a strong breakthrough in April lows produces a steep and well-defined uptrend. If the ceiling at $107K is damaged, the merger below the resistance may form a bullish banner.
Failed attempts to hold over $103,600 could invite another retest of $100,000 in support, which the Bulls must hold to prevent deeper buybacks. On the plus side, the clearing of $107K road leads to $109K and into price discovery. The end of this week will be crucial – a powerful candle above $106K may set the tone for the next macro-legged candle.
Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView
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