Bitcoin ratio approaches key threshold: 3 solutions that can define the next step

Bitcoin finally broke the $96,000 mark, indicating that after weeks of merger and sales pressure, the market structure may have changed. As momentum grows overall, this breakthrough puts the Bulls on the upper hand and carries a new optimism that BTC can recoup this $100,000 milestone in the near term. The market’s tone has changed, and a breakthrough of more than $96,000 may mark the beginning of a new bullish phase.

Axel Adler, top crypto analyst, shared a key chain metric that shows Bitcoin is entering an early stage of a new rally. According to Adler, the chain momentum ratio is now around 0.8 (or 80%). Historically, the region preceded a strong uptrend in previous cycles.

Although global macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty about financial markets, Bitcoin’s chain strength suggests an increasing demand for risk from investors. If the Bulls can maintain this breakthrough and push it to $100,000, it will confirm larger changes in the market and potentially lead to a strong Q2 rally in the cryptocurrency space.

Bitcoin’s eyes are bullish as momentum builds

After months of sales pressure, Bitcoin is recovering its power, and now the Bulls are trying to retract control. With the breakout above the $90K level and momentum gradually shifting, Axel Adler said the market is entering what he calls the “start” gathering zone. This is based on the chain ratio indicator currently located at 0.8 (or 80%), which is a historically significant level, usually before major markets move.

If the ratio exceeds 1.0 and remains stable, a strong bullish impulse may be confirmed. In this optimistic scenario, key metrics such as NUPL (unrealized profit/loss) and MVRV (market value of realization) will indicate the expansion phase that may push Bitcoin to revisit its cyclical model in 2017 and 2021. In this case, the $150K to 17.5k division won’t fall to the $150,000 issue.

However, if the ratio remains between 0.8 and 1.0, the market may enter the merger phase. In this basic case, Bitcoin may trade between $90K and $110,000, with participants taking positions without adding a lot of exposure. Despite the positive long-term prospects, behaviors within this range still indicate caution.

If the ratio drops to 0.75 or less, there will be a more cautious prospect. This could trigger short-term holders’ profits, put pressure on the market, and could reduce Bitcoin to $70,000 – $85,000. Given that corrections have been made, Adler believes that the first two situations are currently more likely. Nevertheless, macroeconomic risks, such as fear of recession or geopolitical shocks, may tilt the scale.

Overall, Bitcoin seems to be warming up for the decisive move, and the coming weeks may confirm whether this is the beginning of a breakthrough or a broader integration.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bull Challenge Key Resistance is $96K

Bitcoin is trading at $96,130, and its short-term uptrend continues after a sharp drop in the $81,000 level in mid-April. The daily chart shows strong momentum, and now BTC merges just below the $96K resistance zone, a level that previously served as support before the collapse before it crashed. A successful breakthrough above the area will open the door to a test psychological $100,000 test followed by the next major resistance at $103,600.

It is worth noting that both the 200-day SMA ($89,843) and the 200-day EMA ($85,926) have been cleanly retracted in this recent move, indicating a significant change in the trend structure. During the rally, the volume has remained stable, although a significant increase in purchasing pressure will help confirm the continuation.

The current structure is similar to a bullish continuation pattern, but BTC must break and close on the $96K mark and firmly believe that upward momentum is confirmed. Failure to do so could result in a callback to retest the support zone, about $92K and $89,000.

Overall, this trend remains bullish in the near term, but be cautious as the $96K-$100K range represents a critical supply area where many sellers may step in. In the next few days, decisive moves could impact the direction of Bitcoin in May.

Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView

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