Bitcoin short-term holders have not yet sold: NUPL suggests upward potential
Bitcoin is under pressure as bullish sentiment begins to fade and sellers return to control. After weeks of strength, BTC is now testing the critical $92,000-$93,000 support zone, trying to confirm this level as the basis for continuation. However, if sales pressure continues to increase, failures below the area may trigger clearer corrections and indicate a weaker trend.
Top analyst Axel Adler shares insights on a key risk factor: In the current bull cycle, short-term holders tend to profit once their unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) exceeds 40%. Historically, this level marks the point where speculators begin to unload their positions, increase the supply of the spot market and create pressure on prices to fall. As Bitcoin recently showed signs of amortization, close to $98,000 and power cooling, traders’ signs are becoming increasingly cautious.
Although the structure remains the same for the moment, BTC must hold a 92K $92K area to avoid turning the key support towards resistance. Bounces from this level may restore bullish cases, but not being held may further diverge sentiment. Bitcoin faces one of the worst tests in this cycle when market participants are paying close attention. The next step may define trends in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin enters key range: Buyer targets $100K breakout
Bitcoin trades within a critical price range, and a decline below $90,000 may trigger a shift in momentum to the downside, while a breakthrough above $100,000 may trigger a strong new bull cycle. After months of sales pressure, BTC has shown new strength and is trying to confirm a wider bullish setting across the market. The recent push over $92K is a key technical step, but now the Bulls must defend this level and build momentum for ongoing breakthroughs.
However, market conditions remain volatile. The current environment is caused by macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, creating unpredictable volatility between crypto and traditional markets. Still, Bitcoin’s price structure shows that the Bulls are at the top of the pack at least for the time being.
Adler shares insights into the role of short-term holders (1-3 months) who are often the most aggressive market players. The group includes professional speculators, many of whom trade Bitcoins through ETF platforms. Historically, during this bull cycle, when their net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) exceeds 40%, they start to make profits, creating selling pressure. Currently, NUPL is only 8%, and its 30-day SMA is still -2%, indicating that short-term holders have not sold in large quantities.
This low NUPL level suggests that immediate sales risk is minimal, which reinforces bullish cases. As long as NUPL remains soft, Bitcoin can continue to climb before profits begin. The days ahead will be crucial – holding more than $90K stakes and building toward a $100,000 price tag could open the door to a breakthrough, and failure to do so could cause new weaknesses. During this cycle, all eyes remain on Bitcoin.
Price action details: Stay strong but face resistance
Bitcoin is currently trading at about $94,158, after a local high of nearly $97,000, with a moderate price of Bitcoin. The daily chart shows that BTC is well above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $90,542, while the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $86,381, suggesting that the broader trend remains positive.
After breaking through the main $90k level of $90,000 in April, the Bitcoin rally has been strong, but is now cementing under psychological $100,000 resistance. The number has begun to gradually decrease, indicating short-term hesitation as bulls and bears fight for control. The ongoing holding of $92K will strengthen bullish cases, potentially laying the foundation for reallocations, compared with the previous cycle high of $103,600.
However, a breakdown below $92K may indicate a loss of momentum and increase the likelihood of a 200-day SMA’s nearly $90,000 retest. Now, this level is crucial support and will be closely watched by traders.
Overall, Bitcoin is still very strong in structure, but the candles are crucial in the next few days. Decisive moves above $97K may inspire the next leg, while losing $90K may risk a trending short-term bearish trend.
Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView
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