Bitcoin Still Belows Historical Top Signals – MVRV z Score Supports Upward Potential

Bitcoin is facing critical testing as it consolidates just below all-time highs and divides the breakthrough into price discovery. After briefly marking the $112,000 mark, BTC retreated slightly, and volatility surged, leaving investors uncertain about the next direction. Although some are concerned about potential corrections, many analysts are confident that the uptrend remains intact, suggesting support levels and chain-chain indicators that support bullish cases.

Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin remains above the $105,000 level, maintaining a bullish structure and maintaining cautious optimism in market sentiment. Now, traders are focusing on decisive moves that can confirm a breakout that exceeds resistance or sweep liquidity before the next leg is higher.

Top analyst Jelle shared data on the chain, highlighting the current position of the MVRV Z score, a key metric used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to historical norms. According to Jelle, the MVRV Z score is still far from the red zone levels that are usually associated with the top of the cycle, indicating that the market still has enough room to grow. As BTC remains stable and macro conditions develop, the upcoming meetings may shape the next explosive phase in the ongoing bull week.

Bitcoin hovers in history as the market waits for breakthrough confirmation

Bitcoin’s trading levels are above key levels, continuing to exceed $105,000 and maintaining its all-time high of $112,000. After weeks of climbing and absorbing macroeconomic uncertainty, BTC is now facing one of its most important levels of resistance. The interference from this area could be a trigger for the full expansion of price discovery, indicating the next explosive leg of the bull market.

This week can prove to be decisive. Bitcoin’s structure remains bullish, with a series of higher lows and stable volume supporting the uptrend. However, volatility has increased in recent days, suggesting that despite the bulls’ control, the market is still weighing the next move. Failed breakthroughs may lead to a drawdown to lower support, with the rest time of around $103,600 and $100,000 in key demand zones.

Despite this, the chain signal continues to tilt and bullish. Jelle highlights the relevance of the MVRV Z-Score, a historical indicator that measures the market value of Bitcoin relative to its realization value. As the price peak approaches, the indicator has historically flashed red – but according to Jelle, the MVRV z score “is not even flashing at the moment”, suggesting that there is still enough room for upwards.

This combination of price stability overhead, technical resistance overhead, and a healthy chain background puts Bitcoin in a key position. A breakthrough above $112,000 can ignite price discovery and accelerate the uptrend in the market. However, as long as BTC still has scope, traders must be cautious and prepare for short-term volatility. The direction Bitcoin takes from here may define the market tone for the second half of 2025.

BTC rejects $109K level

After Bitcoin faces rejection at a resistance level of $109,300, it is currently trading at $107,044 on the 4-hour chart, a key area for the multiple uptrend momentum over the past two weeks. BTC failed to hold a breakout after a brief push of $109K and has since been reviewed and now mid-distance support zones consistent with 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are tested, all clustered between $106,000 and $106,400.

Now, this group of moving averages can serve as immediate support and can act as a pivot for rebound. If the area is established, the Bulls can do another run at the $109K level. However, the failures below these SMAs opened the door to a demand zone that fell to $103,600, and Bitcoin had previously discovered strong buying interest earlier this month.

During the Counter Tour, the number has been increasing slightly, indicating traders are cautious and protecting earnings after last week’s rally. The market may remain in the merger mode until BTC breaks cleanly $109,300. Now, everyone has noticed whether BTC can defend this support cluster or a deeper decline in the near term.

Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView

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