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In an interview with South Korean crypto researcher Juhyuk Bak, Capriole Investments CEO Charles Edwards has made a staggering division in the crypto asset market: While Bitcoin may double this year, Altcoins still has structural damage and is far from any meaningful spin.
Bitcoin could hit $200,000 this year
Speaking from the perspective of macro quantum hedge fund operators, Edwards clearly favors Bitcoin and noted: “If the data stays in the current trend, I think there will definitely be $1.5-200,000 this year.” Capriole’s founder is the founder of Capriole, known for pioneering on-chain evaluation models such as hash ribbons, energy value and macroindexes (energy value and macroindexes), taking this prediction in a network of interlocking technologies, emotions and macroeconomic signals.
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“We are printing new all-time highs when closed daily and weekly,” Edwards noted. “As long as we stay above $104K […] As long as the macro index trend continues to rise, the environment will be very optimistic. ”
Capriole’s proprietary macros – a machine learning model that sums up more than 100 investments from Fed liquidity to bond and stock markets, which is decisively positive. Edwards stressed that Bitcoin’s rally was further strengthened by MVRV z scores, and indicators such as Hodler’s growth rate and energy value.
But while Bitcoin shows strength in multiple dimensions, AltCoins tells a very different story.
The death of the old altcoin cycle
Edwards avoided naming specific altcoins, but made a clear macro judgment: capital flow momentum has changed, and altcoins no longer hold a foothold on an equal footing with Bitcoin. “Structurally, this cycle is very different […] The biggest drivers are Bitcoin ETFs and U.S. policies. This is creating a centralized effect – pouring capital directly into Bitcoin. ” he explained.
He noted that the historical cycle of alternative gatherings led by the retail industry followed by catastrophic gradual declines, usually exceeding 99% of losses. “Retail has just been destroyed,” he said bluntly. “There is a fatigue in the altcoin space that didn’t have four to five years ago.”
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The legacy of events such as the failure of ICO, broken tokenology and the FTX crash left a huge scar on the lasting scar. At the same time, institutions avoid the risks and complexity of smaller digital assets, but choose Bitcoin regulated through ETFs and the company’s fiscal allocation. “In the past, it was more of a level playing field. It wasn’t that anymore,” Edwards said. “Real money is going to bitcoin, and that could have lasted for a while.”
When will Altcoins wake up?
Despite the grim tone, Edwards did not completely refute the altcoin. He believes that a strong altcoin cycle is conditional – not impossible, but depends first on a clear Bitcoin advantage.
He used Capriole’s speculative index and crypto-width models that track the relative strength and price transfer of Altcoins, and he made a key observation: “Currently, only 5% of AltCoins are above its 200-day moving average. This is not bullish.”
He compared the current setup to the end of 2020, when Bitcoin beat $60,000 from sales sold. The rotation requires Bitcoin to violate previous all-time highs first. “You want Bitcoin to hit $140,000, and Alts still performs poorly. This will be the ideal setup […] That is when capital begins to rotate downstream. ” he explained.
Conversely, if AltCoins starts pumping prematurely and Bitcoin maintains range limits, Edwards treats it as the highest signal. “This is usually the last air,” he warned.
Cycles are changing, risks are developing
In addition to price action, Edwards also questioned the relevance of the traditional halving cycle. He believes that due to the ETF, the treasury and sovereign actors like Michael Saylor, the impact of miners – the main driver of Bitcoin supply dynamics, is greatly reduced. “That four-year cycle is dead, or at least larger. Miners now make up only 2-3% of supply flows. The real driver today is institutions.”
This evolution reduces the likelihood of shrinkage by 80% and increases the risk of systemic leverage, especially from publicly traded Bitcoin heavy companies. Although not a direct concern, Edwards believes that long-term vulnerability may occur if the main players are overexpanded.
Edwards also discussed diversification in Capriole’s portfolio. Although Bitcoin remains the core allocation for the company, he revealed the exposure of quantum computing stocks such as IONQ (IONQ), RIGETTI (RGTI), D-WAVE (QBTS) and QUBT. “I think Quantum is like Bitcoin in 2015. It’s already early, but the long-term compound annual growth rate may be higher than Bitcoin.”
He added that gold also plays a strategic role, not as a substitute, but as a hedge. Capriole closely monitors the gold-to-equity ratio, and its breakout of over 200-day moving average is seen as a historical bullish signal – for gold and Bitcoin.
By the end, Edwards urged investors to collect most of the financial news cycle. “Probably 99% of headlines don’t matter,” he said. Instead, focusing on game-changing shifts: the pivot of feeding, the expansion of global liquidity, and the real structural reconfiguration of capital flows. “We’re going to overreact to bad news. The key is to filter it to some macro drivers that actually transfer the market, and Bitcoin is now in favor of its people.”
Unless AltCoins shows meaningful breadth and breaks its long-term resistance structure, Edwards’ message is clear: Bitcoin will soar. AltCoins won’t-at least not yet.
At press time, BTC was trading at $105,557.
Featured Images created with dall.e, Charts for TradingView.com
