Bitcoin remains above the critical support level as it continues to consolidate an all-time high of just below $112,000. Despite taking on bullish momentum in the wider crypto market, BTC is still working to restore this critical level of resistance, putting traders on the edge. Analysts agree that a decisive breakthrough is needed to confirm the uptrend and indicate the beginning of a new expansion phase.
According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, the recent recovery of Bitcoin’s 4-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) highlights a shift in long-term market sentiment. After falling to just 7% in April (reflective compression margins and cycle exhaustion), CAGR has now rebounded to 31%, falling in what analysts consider to be a “strong zone.” This revival comes as BTC prices recovered from $110,000 between May and June 2025, and hopes for a sustained bullish trend have recovered.
Although the current growth rate is still below the historical cycle peak of 50-80%, the market structure and chain dynamics indicate that there is still enough room for upward. As Bitcoin keeps its ground and market conditions stable, a decisive breakthrough in the phase may be determined – the uptrend can be reconfirmed and BTC can be driven back to price discovery again.
Bitcoin needs to strengthen price discovery because fundamentals are strengthened
Bitcoin is on the verge of entering price discovery, with asset trading just below its all-time high of $112,000. After weeks of consolidation and steady levels, this week can prove to be a decisive role in the entire cryptocurrency market. A breakthrough beyond resistance will mark the beginning of a new explosive phase, and in the case of momentum stalling, a callback below liquidity remains an effective risk. Either way, the market is preparing for major actions.
This critical moment has emerged in the context of rising macroeconomic uncertainty. The U.S. economy continues to show signs of general pressure due to rising treasury yields, rising inflation and geopolitical tensions. Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin’s structure remains strong and based on improving long-term fundamentals.
Top analyst Axel Adler shares insights from crypto literacy, which suggests Bitcoin’s 4-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) rebound. After falling to just 7% in April (a market with severely compressed signal), by June 2025, the CAGR had recovered to 31%, entering what Adler called a “strong zone.” The rebound coincided with Bitcoin’s climb to $110,000, strengthening bullish sentiment.
While 31% is still below 50-80% of historical peak compound years, Adler notes that the background is favorable. If futures market momentum and leverage continue to build, he expects Bitcoin to reach $168,000 as early as October 2025. For the moment, all eyes are on BTC’s next move, because no matter which direction it breaks, it could set the tone for the rest of the year.
BTC merges under ATH: The market is waiting for the next step
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently trading at $107,259 after a small acquisition of $109,300 resistance levels. Price action shows that BTC formed a range of $103,600 (support) to $109,300 (resistance) and made multiple rejections from the upper boundary. Still, Bitcoin is still above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $102,998, indicating that the temporary broader uptrend remains intact.
The merger followed the rebound after BTC rebounded sharply from the $103,600 support zone earlier this month. The structure is still constructive, but the Bulls need to recoup and hold levels above $109,300 to challenge the all-time high of $112K and drive price discovery. Failure to do so could result in a $103,600 reinvestment, with liquidity likely concentrated.
The volume is still relatively stable, though slightly lower on the latest legs, suggesting that this power is cooling. That is, as long as BTC is held above the key moving average and does not close below $103,600, the bullish structure is retained.
Featured images from DALL-E, charts from TradingView
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