Bitcoin analyst Samson Mow warned that psychological bias is cheating on new cryptocurrency investors. JAN3’s CEO recently pointed out that most new entrants in the crypto market have been misled by what economists call “unit bias”, leading them to make wrong investment decisions based on the price of the coin rather than the actual value.
Investors are misled by “cheap” altcoins
MOW says inexperienced investors tend to view cheap alternatives as discounted bargains for Bitcoin. “Most Alts take advantage of unit bias through very high supply so people can’t tell what they buy,” Mow tweeted on X.
He highlighted this confusion, illustration: “XRP is only **$2, but Bitcoin is too expensive, at $85,000!” This price fantasy happens because the overall supply of most other cryptocurrencies is much larger than Bitcoin’s coin caps 21 million coins.
Most Alts exploit unit bias by using very high supply so people can’t figure out what they buy.
“XRP is *only*$2, but Bitcoin is too expensive and priced at $85,000!”
Unit bias absolutely destroys uninspired people.#bitcoin Only.
– Samson Mow (@Excellion) April 19, 2025
The psychological implication makes most fresh buyers want to have a full coin for smaller cryptocurrencies, rather than a high-priced coin with higher scores.
MOW asserts that unit bias is destroying important periods of inexperienced, meaning ignorance is hurting novice investors who do not know the difference in market value and personal coin prices.
Prices with relatively equal supply show different results
MOW constructs a thought experiment to illustrate how extreme cryptocurrency prices they would have if they all shared a limited supply of Bitcoin.
According to his estimates, if Ethereum had only 21 million coins (compared to a larger supply), the price per coin was about $9,200, up to 278,740% from the current price. Similarly, XRP surged 470% to $5,800 per coin, while Solana would climb 2,325% to $3,400.
These figures are calculated by dividing Alts’ market capitalization and dividing by 21 million, thus replacing their supply in terms of Bitcoin supply.
ETH: $193B Market Cap/21m = $9,200
You can only buy 0.11 BTC instead of buying Etherium for one hundred thousand.
– Samson Mow (@Excellion) April 19, 2025
“You can buy the 21 million BTC supply for about $85,000,” Mow said. “What happens if you remove unit bias from Alts to find the equivalent of 1/210,000 unit bias?” His conclusion is clear: “These altcoins are by no means worth that much.”
XRP market cap currently at $119 billion. Chart: TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s advantage is higher than expected
As the TradingView data shows, a portion of Bitcoin’s overall cryptocurrency market violates expectations. This indicator, called “Bitcoin Advantage”, quantifies the market value of Bitcoin relative to all other cryptocurrencies.
Following the latest trends in the market and his analysis of unit bias, MOW now predicts that “bitcoin’s advantage will be much higher”, even more than the current position or even previous expectations.
This is in contrast to previous forecasts that suggest capital will move other cryptocurrencies from Bitcoin by the end of 2024 and early 2025.
Featured images from Capital.com, charts for TradingView
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