This article is based on research and analysis originally proposed by Matt Crosby Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
Bitcoin has seen a wave in recent weeks, and after months of performance, the price of Bitcoin has risen by $95,000. For many businessmen and investors, this shift marks the rewards of a long-awaited bull market. The question that comes to everyone’s mind: Can Bitcoin eventually break the previous high price of $108,000, or is it just another brief rally?
In this article, we will look at the factors driving Bitcoin’s recent momentum, deeper into technology and on-chain data, and discuss the broader macroeconomic environment to assess whether leading cryptocurrencies can maintain this bullish action.
Quick rebound: Bitcoin’s recent surge
Bitcoin’s price has previously experienced a significant decline of more than 30%, with its all-time high of over $100,000 to $70,000. But after a period of uncertainty, the cryptocurrency king regained his foothold and returned to $90,000. This price recovery comes after a period of several months of consolidation, which many view as a bearish market structure. But recent developments suggest that Bitcoin could be the cusp of a major breakthrough, supporting the Bitcoin price prediction model that enters the re-wave of discussion.
Bitcoin’s price action has recently received several key levels, including the price realized by key short-term holders (the price realized by STH), which are often seen as a major signal of market strength. Historically, during bull markets, short-term holders realize that prices are supportive levels. When this metric is converted from resistor to support, it is usually indicated to have a robust foundation for further upward movement.
Bitcoin price (BTC) has recovered about $93,000 to $95,000 in the past few weeks, suggesting that the market may be preparing for a larger rally. Given that previous bull cycles have seen similar behavior after recouping key price levels, many are beginning to become increasingly apparent at the potential of new all-time highs in 2025.
Chain data: bullish signs of market strength
When analyzing Bitcoin, it is not only the price action, but also the data on the chain. This data helps us understand the behavior of market participants and gain insight into the health of the network. The recent shift in long-term holder supply is such an indicator that suggests the prospect of Bitcoin’s enhanced prospects.
Over the past few months, Bitcoin has experienced an unusual pattern in which long-term holders (those who hold Bitcoin for more than a year) actively sell their holdings, potentially locking in profits. This has caused many people to worry that Bitcoin’s price is approaching its peak. However, recent data show a reversal of this trend. Long-term holders start to accumulate again, which is usually a strong bullish signal in the Bitcoin market cycle. Historically, when long-term holders turn to accumulation mode, it often marks the beginning of a new bull phase.
Furthermore, the existence of ETFs further strengthens this optimistic outlook. Bitcoin ETFs have seen hundreds of millions of dollars flowing into it over the past few weeks, indicating growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin. These inflows are in a period of time, such as the S&P 500’s traditional markets already face volatility, but despite the market corrections, Bitcoin managed to occupy its own ground, even at the rally.
The role of the basic principles of the market: Why this move feels different
Now, there is a fundamental shift in the Bitcoin market, which shows that it is not just another brief rally. Bitcoin’s current upward momentum seems to be driven primarily by spot-driven purchases rather than leveraged trading. This move is usually more sustainable and not easily reversed when the price of Bitcoin rises, with increasing reasons rather than excessive leverage.
One of the main drivers of the more organic upward pressure on Bitcoin prices is the decline in the US dollar intensity index (DXY). DXY has been declining over the past few weeks, indicating a decrease in demand for the dollar. This trend makes risky assets like Bitcoin more attractive. Bitcoin will benefit from this broader market trend due to various monetary policy actions. The decline in dollar strength also indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment, with more capital flowing to assets in weaker dollar environments likely to outperform.
In addition, the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional stock markets, especially the S&P 500 index, is a key factor in monitoring. Bitcoin has shown a strong positive correlation with the stock market for most of 2023. This means that when the S&P 500 index gathers, Bitcoin tends to follow suit. Recent price action shows that Bitcoin is able to keep its ground despite the stock market’s temporary decline, which further suggests that Bitcoin’s bullish sentiment can continue, especially as traditional markets continue to rebound.
Macro factors: Global liquidity status
The broader economic environment cannot be ignored. The central bank has injected a large amount of liquidity into the global market from 2020 to 2022. While this liquidity initially fueled asset inflation in all markets, it now also shows signs of positive impact on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has historically been linked to global liquidity trends, and recent data suggest that liquidity in the financial system eventually begins to affect the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s recent surge coincides with this liquidity rise, further strengthening the situation at a longer bullish stage.
However, there is still a key factor to consider: global stock conditions and its potential to affect Bitcoin prices. The S&P 500, while showing a strong rebound, still faces resistance at key levels. Bitcoin’s price is closely related to broader stock performance, and it could also curb the prospects for Bitcoin if the stock market faces further turmoil.
What’s next for Bitcoin: $100,000 and beyond?
The $100,000 level is the direct target of Bitcoin’s price, but the real question is: Can it break this resistance and push it toward a new all-time highest territory? Recent recycling of key levels, such as short-term holders achieving price and moving averages (100 days, 200 days, 365 days), suggests that Bitcoin is strong in testing the $100,000 position again.
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin is currently at a defining juncture. If it can exceed the $90,000-$95,000 range and continue to build support, the path to a new all-time high is increasingly possible. The next big resistor could be $108,000, which is currently the highest level in history. If Bitcoin can break this level, we can see a rapid shift to higher levels – Bitcoin will be at a speed of up to $130,000 in the next cycle.
However, there is always a possibility of a pullback. If Bitcoin cannot maintain its support level, or global market conditions become bearish, we can see the price revert to the $80,000 range. Retesting the market will be a critical moment for the market, as failure to get support may lay the foundation for more important shortcomings.
Conclusion: Cautiously optimistic view
All signs indicate potential Bitcoin rally, with strong chain data, favorable macro environment, and positive sentiment in derivatives markets. However, the key to maintaining this bullish momentum is Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its current support levels and navigate potential market corrections. The close correlation with the S&P 500 remains a key factor of concern, as any downturn in stocks can affect Bitcoin’s price action.
In the coming weeks, everyone will be looking at the ability of Bitcoin to earn $100,000 and lay the foundation for new all-time highs. Despite enough room for optimism, traders should be alert and be prepared for any potential volatility. As always, the key to success in the crypto market is to stay data-driven and adapt as market conditions develop.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Be sure to do your own research before making any investment decisions.
