ARK Invest raises target share price of 2030 Bitcoin Bull Case Plation to $2.4 million
ARK Invest has greatly revised its long-term prospects for Bitcoin, with a price target of about $2.4 million in bull cases by 2030. The report sheds light on the potential of Bitcoin-based total addressable market (TAM) and uses assumptions of trends and supply dynamics to list a comprehensive modeling framework.
The updated target is a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 72% between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2030. By comparison, the base and bear cases for the Ark are estimated at $1.2 million (CAGR ~ 53%) and $500,000 (CAGR ~ 32%), respectively.
The report notes that “institutional investment has contributed the greatest contribution to our bull case”, highlighting the estimated $200 trillion penetration of global market portfolios by 2030, accounting for 6.5% of global market portfolios. According to ARK, that share is almost twice the current allocation to gold.
Bitcoin is called “digital gold” by some, increasingly because of its potential “nimbler, a more transparent store of valuetransparentThe report states. Assuming Bitcoin captures 60% of Gold’s market cap, digital gold is expected to contribute more than one-third to the bull case valuation.
Emerging market demand is another major factor. “We believe this Bitcoin use case has the greatest capital accrual potential,” said Ark, the asset that protects wealth from inflation and depreciation in developing economies. This segment can account for 13.5% Assuming the TAM penetration rate of emerging market monetary base is 6%, this $2.4 million valuation is expected.
Further contributions stem from the adoption of nation-state treasury, corporate cash reserves and emerging on-chain financial services ecosystems. It is worth noting that even the conservative assumptions about chain services reflect 60% of CAGR, which is based on innovations such as Layer 2 networks and WBTC.
In the supplementary analysis, Ark also applies these assumptions to the “active” supply of Bitcoin, an approach that can discount long-term controlled or lost coins. Bull Case Plating’s supply base is a lively adjusted supply base, jumping from the initial $1.5 million to the updated $2.4 million.
Ark concluded that “most valuation models today do not reflect the scarcity of Bitcoin and the loss of supply,” indicating further upward potential beyond the already bold predictions.
You can read the full report here.
