New research shows Increased solar activity shortens the lifespan of SpaceX Starlink satellitesAnd it may be sent back to Earth at a greater speed. Perhaps without any feeling, this may increase the risk of satellite debris landing.
This preprint study, which has not been peer-reviewed, adds a lot of evidence to the Solar storm wreaks on Elon Musk’s Starlinks. Over the past few years, the frequency and intensity of these storms have increased as the sun approaches its maximum, which is the peak of its 11-year cycle. At the same time, the number of satellites orbiting the Earth soared. In large part, it is due to the rise of private giants in history, such as the Stars and Stripes links.
A team of researchers led by Denny Oliveira of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center tracks the re-entry of star-stripe satellites between 2020 and 2024. This period coincides with the rising phase of the current solar cycle, when solar activity is getting higher and higher before the solar maximum in October 2024.
In the course of these five years, 523 star-striped satellites have re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere. Oliveira and his colleagues used statistical techniques to analyze the orbits of these satellites, which identified patterns of their orbital decay and reentry rates of change during high solar activity.
The researchers found that geomagnetic activity – a perturbation in the upper atmosphere triggered by the sun’s eruption – caused Starlink to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere faster than expected. These satellites are design Stayed on track for about five years. However, in severe geomagnetic storms, their lifespan may be reduced by 10 to 12 days.
He and his colleagues believe this is because geomagnetic activity heats the atmosphere and causes it to expand. This increases drag on the satellite, shortens its lifespan, and loses altitude faster when interacting with the upper atmosphere. More importantly, atmospheric drag may increase the chances of satellite collisions, as the orbital model guiding collision avoidance measures cannot fully explain the impact of geomagnetic activity. The team’s discovery is currently available on preprint servers arxiv.
Oliveira explained that the 10-to-12-day difference may not be a big deal, but it may make it nearly impossible for SpaceX to ensure Starlink Satellites return to Earth through controlled reentry. More importantly, his analysis shows that increasing drag causes satellites to re-enter at higher speeds, which he believes can increase the chances of debris reaching the ground.
This seems counterintuitive, as increasing the speed of an object during reentry often increases the possibility of complete disintegration. However, Oliveira believes that the decline of star-stripe links at higher rates may cause re-entry due to the reduction of atmospheric interactions. Further research will require confirmation of this hypothesis, as the study did not directly assess debris risk.
Starlinks are designed to burn completely during re-entry, but this doesn’t always happen. 5.5 pounds (2.5 kg) of Starlink fragments landed in a Saskatchewan farm in 2024 Report. In February this year, SpaceX explain Starlink debris may fall back to Earth, but claims that this “has no risk to humans on the ground, at sea or in the air.”
Harvard University astronomer Jonathan McDowell said there are now more than 7,500 interstellar links in orbit. track constellation. Ultimately, SpaceX hopes to be the same size as the fleet, with the goal of launching 42,000 interstellar links. space.com. This is a complement to the thousands of other satellites orbiting the Earth at present.
“[This is] “For the first time in history, we have so many satellites in orbit,” Oliveira said. “And it may be every day for the next few months or years.” Understanding how changes in solar activity affects its lifespan and re-entry will be crucial as the Earth’s orbit becomes increasingly crowded.
