Standard Rental Defender $500,000 Bitcoin Target, citing the increasing government exposure through MSTR

Sovereign investment in Bitcoin is accelerating – not always in the most direct way. In a new report, Standard Chartered Bank said indirect exposure through strategies (formerly micro-strategy) is quietly increasing in government entities, strengthening the bank’s long-standing price forecast that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 before President Donald Trump left the office in 2029.

“The latest data from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) support our core argument that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach the $500,000 level before Trump leaves the office, as it attracts a wider range of institutional buyers,” wrote Geoffrey Kendrick, head of global digital assets research at Standard Chartered. “As more and more investors gain access to assets and as volatility decreases, we believe portfolios will move their positions to the best level starting from underweight in BTC.”

The 13F file for the first quarter shows that direct Bitcoin ETF purchases slowed down – Vostan’s state fund exited the entire 3,400 BTC equals IBIT position, while purchases of MSTR stocks for government-government shares are rising. For example, Mubadala of Abu Dhabi exposed its IBIT to a 5,000 BTC equivalent, but Kendrick said the bigger story is elsewhere.

“We believe that in some cases, Mstr Holdings of government entities reflects the desire to obtain Bitcoin exposure when local regulations do not allow direct BTC holdings,” he said.

France and Saudi Arabia held their first positions in MSTR in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Norway’s government pension funds, Swiss National Bank and South Korea’s public funds each increased exposure to 700 BTC. U.S. retirement funds in states such as California and New York have increased their total value of 1,000 BTC through MSTR. Kendrick called the trend “very encouraging.”

“Quarterly 13F data is the best test for our paper, that is, as the market matures, BTC will attract new institutional buyers types, helping prices reach $500,000,” Kendrick said. “When institutions buy Bitcoin, prices tend to rise.”

This is not Kendrick’s first bullish call. Last month, he admitted that his forecast for the $120,000 in Q2 2025 was “too low” on the grounds that inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs brought $5.3 billion in exchange into U.S. spot BTC ETFs in just three weeks. At the time, Kendrick changed his end-of-2025 target to $200,000.

Standard Charter’s latest analysis shows that Bitcoin’s role in institutional portfolios goes beyond technical volatility correlations and is now increasingly seen as a macro hedge. “Now it’s all about flow,” Kendrick said. “Flow comes in many forms.”