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Bill Barhydt, founder and CEO of crypto banking platform Abra, launched Crypto-X over the weekend, by re-releasing a collage of global M2-versus-Bitcoin charts, first promoted by macro investor Raoul Pal and researcher Julien Bittel. He wrote: “I’ve seen more than a dozen posts with different versions of the global liquidity M2 vs Bitcoin price chart – I’ve attached a few here. Creats@raoulgmi and his colleague @bitteljulien found this trend.”
“Most of these charts are predicted to drop to around $100k in the coming days and then move to the new ATH in August/September, or it all could be horseshoe. Anyway.”
Will Bitcoin pay attention to M2?
Barhydt expands in a macro context, “in the coming months, global liquidity needs to increase significantly. Bitcoin remains the mother of all liquidity (RE: depreciating) sponges.” He makes the reflectiveness of assets reflective in a clear way: As Fiat supply grows, Bitcoin absorbs overdoses and the gains gained “will likely spill over into other L1 platforms and then eventually speculates out the Alts – the well-known Alt season.”
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Even so, he warns traders to be complacent. Barhydt advises: “Observe your leverage, touch the grass, please stay civil.
When followers may have been overcrowded with the model, Barhydt dismissed the idea that positioning has reached critical quality: “I’ve thought about that, but we’re talking about trillions of dollars and billions of dollars. Maybe even focus on that.
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The second time critics complained that liquidity data “is not collected on a schedule that predicts daily actions.” Barhydt agreed, replies: “I agree completely. So, the ‘Whthing’ reference. It is at best a macro direction of weekly scale. But in that regard, it is a very good tool.”
Liquidity First Paper still has heavyweight proponents. Parr recently told real visual subscribers that “liquidity is the most important driver of all asset prices”, with an estimated rise in the world’s money supply accounting for 90% of Bitcoin’s price action, while Bitel’s latest update, PEGS Global M2, approaching a record $111 trillion – he said he said Bitcoin “still higher.”
Whether these grand storms push Bitcoin toward a $130,000 goal or in Barhydt’s own words to prove that “horshoe” will depend on the central bank’s recovery of balanced balance expansion and how actively expand traders’ leverage in the coming weeks. Currently, Barhydt’s phone can serve as both a roadmap and a reality check: the next swing may be explosive, but the model is only as good as the fluidity it tracks.
At press time, BTC traded at $104,625.
Featured Images created with dall.e, Charts for TradingView.com
