Investor optimism about XRP ETFs has risen sharply. According to Polymarket, the probability of green light is 83%. This is the case even if the SEC keeps pushing for decisions. Some industry observers say regulators are simply using their complete window of review.
Analyst forecasts and timelines
According to James Seyffart of Bloomberg, SEC often takes a full 240 days to weigh 19b-4. He noted that the agency requested an additional 45 days on May 20 to rule on changes to Bitwise’s Ether Stage Change, moving the deadline to May 22.
According to his post on X, almost all live ETF bids are now facing a final date for October. This makes any primary approval extremely unlikely.
On-site and futures products
On May 19, the Chicago Merchant Exchange launched the XRP futures contract for the first time. A few days later, volatility stocks listed XRPI futures ETFs on the Nasdaq. Tectrium then added a 2x longer daily XRP ETF for those seeking more leverage.
These products allow traders to bet on future prices of XRP in a regulated environment. They are different from spot ETFs, but they show a growing interest from big investors.
Institutional access through ETF
According to reports, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse talked about why ETFs are important in the company’s podcast. He said ETFs let Wall Street buy cryptocurrencies without communication or private wallets.
He stressed that Bitcoin ETFs have $1 billion assets faster than anyone else, and then recorded $10 billion. He believes that the record paves the way for similar products related to XRP.
Market prospects and caution
Delays are normal based on SEC application and industry chat. The committee has delayed its decision on Grayscale’s XRP tracking fund and Solana ETF.
Analysts warn that odds in the forecast market may change dramatically. If the SEC raises new questions or asks for other comment periods, today’s chances could drop by 83%. As October approaches, investors should pay close attention to the calendar.
Excitement and patience
The buzz around the XRP blob ETF reflects real excitement, but history shows that regulators are moving slowly. Futures ETFs like XRPI provide a path to the XRP market, but they come with quirks like Contango and Premium Swings. Currently, both institutions and retail merchants will watch the SEC deadline with a strong interest and may be somewhat patient.
Featured images by Gemini Imagen, charts by TradingView
